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Change and Continuity in the 2016 and 2018 Elections

Change and Continuity in the 2016 and 2018 Elections

© 2020 | 528 pages | CQ Press
Since its first edition in 1980, Change and Continuity has been known for offering the best analysis and explanation of voting behavior in the most recent election and setting those results in the context of larger trends and patterns in elections studies. This top-notch author team meticulously and accessibly explains the National Election Studies data and analyzes its importance and impact. Known for its current scholarship and excellent use and display of data, the text covers the most recent presidential and Congressional elections, voter turnout, and the social forces, party loyalties, and prominent issues that affect voting behavior. The 2016 and 2018 Edition will include new material on the congressional elections 2018 and an updated conclusion reflecting on what those results mean for the future of American politics.  
Tables and Figures
About the Authors
Change and Continuity  
Voters and the Act of Voting  
Survey Research Sampling  
Plan of the Book  
CHAPTER 1 • The Nomination Struggle
Who Ran  
The Rules of the Nomination System  
Strategy and the Candidates’ Campaigns in 2016: The Electoral Setting and How the Candidates Won Their Nominations  
CHAPTER 2 • The General Election Campaign
The Strategic Context and Candidates’ Choices  
Political Context, Overall Strategy, and Opening Moves  
From the Conventions to the Debates  
The End Game and the Struggle over Turnout  
Did the Campaign Make a Difference?  
CHAPTER 3 • The Election Results
The Election Rules  
The Pattern of Results  
State-by-State Results  
Electoral Change in the Postwar South  
The Electoral Vote Balance  
CHAPTER 4 • Who Voted?
Voter Turnout, 1789–1916  
Voter Turnout, 1920–2016  
Voter Turnout among Social Groups  
Changes in Turnout after 1960  
Election-Specific Factors  
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?  
CHAPTER 5 • Social Forces and the Vote
How Social Groups Voted in 2016  
How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years  
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down  
CHAPTER 6 • Candidates, Issues, and the Vote
Attitudes toward the Candidates  
Prospective Evaluations  
Issue Positions and Perceptions  
Issue Voting Criteria  
Apparent Issue Voting in 2016  
CHAPTER 7 • Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice
What Is Retrospective Voting?  
Evaluations of Government Performance on Important Problems  
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Foreign Policy Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent  
Evaluations of the Incumbent  
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations  
CHAPTER 8 • Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, and the Vote
Party Identification as Loyalty: The Original View  
Party Identification as Retrospective Evaluation: An Alternative View  
Party Identification, Polarization, and Identity: A Synthesis?  
Party Identification in the Electorate  
Hispanic Partisanship in 2008, 2012, and 2016  
Party Identification and the Vote  
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations  
CHAPTER 9 • Candidates and Outcomes in 2016
Election Outcomes in 2016  
Candidates’ Resources and Election Outcomes  
The 2016 Elections: The Impact on Congress  
The 2018 Elections and Beyond  
CHAPTER 10 • The Congressional Electorate in 2016
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote  
Issues and the Congressional Vote  
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote  
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote  
The Congressional Vote as Referendum  
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote  
CHAPTER 11 • The 2018 Congressional Elections
The Pattern of Outcomes  
Assessing Victory and Explaining the Results  
National and Local Influences in Congressional Elections  
The 2018 Elections: The Impact on Congress  
The 2020 Elections and Beyond  
CHAPTER 12 • The 2016 and 2018 Elections and the Future of American Politics
Are Midterm Elections Predictive?  
Prospects for the Democrats  
Prospects for the Republicans  
CHAPTER 13 • The Dynamics of American Elections
The Great Continuities: The Electoral System and the Party System  
The Great Change: Depolarization and the Return of Partisan Polarization  
Change and Continuity in Turnout  
Continuities in Electoral Partisanship  
Changes in the Partisan Electorate  
Change and Continuity in the U.S. Congress  

John H. Aldrich

John H. Aldrich is Pfizer-Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University. He is author of Why Parties: A Second Look (2011), coeditor of Positive Changes in Political Science (2007), and author of Why Parties (1995) and Before the Convention (1980). He is a past president of both the Southern Political Science Association and the Midwest Political Science Association and is serving as president of the American Political Science Association. In 2001 he was elected a fellow in the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. More About Author

Jamie L. Carson

Brad T. Gomez

Brad T. Gomez is associate professor of political science at Florida State University. His research interests focus on voting behavior and public opinion with a particular interest in how citizens attribute responsibility for socio-political events. His published work appears in the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and other journals and edited volumes. More About Author

David W. Rohde

David W. Rohde is Ernestine Friedl Professor of Political Science and director of the Political Institutions and Public Choice Program at Duke University. He is coeditor of Why Not Parties? (2008), author of Parties and Leaders in the Postreform House (1991), coeditor of Home Style and Washington Work (1989), and coauthor of Supreme Court Decision Making (1976). More About Author